ModelsThatMatter

Jul 21, 2025

MTM2 - Survivorship Bias: The Danger You Don't See

I’ll be honest—there was a phase when I was hooked on every business bestseller out there. I thought if I could just crack the code behind the “secrets of unicorn founders,” I’d find my breakthrough. Then one day, I saw this old black-and-white photo of a WWII bomber, full of bullet holes—and it completely changed how I think. That’s when I stumbled onto survivorship bias. It makes us focus on the winners while ignoring everything (and everyone) that didn’t make it. And that’s where some of the most valuable lessons are hiding. So, ready to dig a little deeper? Let’s explore what success stories don’t always tell you.What Survivorship Bias Actually Is (And Where You Didn’t Know It Lurks)Survivorship bias is one of those invisible forces that shape your decisions, often without you realizing it. At its core, it’s the tendency to focus on the people or things that made it past a certain selection process—while ignoring those that didn’t. This can lead you to draw conclusions that are overly optimistic or simply inaccurate, because you’re only seeing part of the picture.Think of it this way: if you only study the winners, you’ll miss the lessons buried in the stories of those who failed. Research shows that this bias is a type of sample selection bias, where the “sample” you’re analyzing is incomplete. The missing data—sometimes called “silent evidence”—is just as important as what’s visible.Abraham Wald and the WWII Bomber PlanesOne of the most famous examples comes from World War II. Statisticians were asked to figure out how to reinforce bomber planes so more would return from missions. The military brought in Abraham Wald, who noticed something everyone else missed. The planes that came back were riddled with bullet holes in certain spots. The obvious answer seemed to be: reinforce those areas.But Wald realized the real danger lay in the places that weren’t damaged on the returning planes. His insight? The planes that didn’t come back were probably hit in those very spots. So, he recommended reinforcing the undamaged areas, not the bullet-riddled ones. This story is a classic illustration of survivorship bias—focusing on survivors while ignoring the silent evidence of those that didn’t survive.Where Survivorship Bias Hides in Everyday LifeYou might think this is just a historical curiosity, but survivorship bias is everywhere. Take the world of business advice. You’ll often read about college dropout billionaires—think Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg. The message seems clear: dropping out is a path to success. But what about the thousands who dropped out and didn’t make it? Their stories rarely make headlines or motivational speeches.The same goes for mutual fund advertisements. Studies indicate that financial firms often highlight only the funds that performed well, quietly omitting those that closed due to poor performance. This creates a misleading picture of how easy it is to “beat the market.” If you’re not careful, you might believe that success is more common than it really is.A Personal Twist: Lessons That Don’t Get ToldLet’s bring this closer to home. A friend of mine once tried to launch a home bakery. She poured her heart into it, but after a year, she had to close shop. Her story—full of lessons about cash flow, marketing missteps, and burnout—never made it into the glossy food blogs that celebrate overnight success. The reality is, for every bakery that makes it, there are dozens that quietly disappear. Their lessons are just as valuable, if not more so.Best Practices and OutliersEven in leadership, you’ll find survivorship bias lurking. Many organizations copy “best practices” from outliers—companies that succeeded against the odds. But these practices might not be the reason for their success, or they might not work in a different context. Without considering the failures, you risk chasing after strategies that only worked for a lucky few.Hospitals adopting digital transformation often emulate pioneers like Mayo Clinic. But without studying the failed tech implementations in smaller systems, they risk repeating costly integration mistakes.The Leadership Trap: Why Chasing Winners BackfiresIt’s almost irresistible: you see a company like Apple dominating the market, and your first instinct is to study their every move. You want to know what they’re doing right, hoping you can replicate that success in your own organization. This is the classic benchmarking temptation—comparing yourself only to the winners. But here’s the trap: by focusing solely on thriving competitors, you’re only seeing part of the picture. The failures, the companies that tried and fell short, are left out of the story. And that’s where survivorship bias quietly creeps in.Research shows that survivorship bias is a cognitive shortcut where we pay attention only to those who made it through, ignoring the silent evidence of those who didn’t. In business, this means you might copy Apple’s product launches, but overlook the dozens of failed smartphone makers who followed similar strategies and vanished without a trace. As a leader, this selective vision can be dangerous. You end up with a skewed sense of what works, and your decisions are shaped by incomplete data.Another common leadership mistake is ignoring the experiences of people who’ve left your organization—or why your competitors folded. When you only listen to current employees or analyze surviving companies, you miss out on critical lessons. Departed team members often hold valuable insights about what went wrong, what was missing, or why they felt compelled to leave. Similarly, understanding why a competitor failed can be far more instructive than simply copying the playbook of a winner.Imagine you become captivated by a hot SaaS company’s growth story—slick marketing, rapid scaling, a charismatic founder. You decide to mimic their approach, pushing your team to adopt the same tactics. But did you ever pause to ask: how many other startups tried this and failed? What hidden pitfalls did the headlines gloss over? Within months, your team is burned out, results are flat, and morale is slipping. You’ve fallen for the illusion of easy success, never seeing the failures that should have guided your caution.The major risk here is clear: when you make decisions with incomplete data, you almost always overestimate your odds of success and underestimate the risks involved. Studies indicate that this kind of bias can lead to overconfident strategies, wasted resources, and missed warning signs. As Abraham Wald famously demonstrated during WWII, the damage you don’t see—the silent evidence—matters just as much, if not more, than what’s visible. Ignoring the full spectrum of outcomes means you’re flying blind, even if you think you’re following a proven path.So, the next time you’re tempted to chase the winners, pause and ask: what am I not seeing? Who failed, and why? What stories aren’t being told? The answers might not be as glamorous, but they’re often the ones that will keep you—and your team—out of the leadership trap.Escaping the Trap: How to Hunt for 'Silent Evidence'Survivorship bias is a subtle but powerful force that can distort your judgment as a leader. It’s easy to focus on the winners—the companies that made it, the strategies that worked, the leaders who succeeded. But what about the silent evidence? The failures, the flops, the stories that never made headlines? If you want to avoid costly mistakes, you need to actively seek out what’s missing from the picture.Step 1: Ask, “What am I not seeing?”Before you make any major decision, pause and ask yourself: Who failed following the advice I’m about to take? This simple question can be a game-changer. Research shows that ignoring failed cases leads to overly optimistic conclusions and poor risk assessment. In business, for example, you might read about a startup that grew rapidly after adopting a certain marketing strategy. But how many others tried the same approach and quietly disappeared? If you don’t ask, you’ll never know—and you’ll be walking blind into the same traps.Seek Out Failure StoriesTo balance your outlook, make it a habit to look for post-mortems, exit interviews, and industry failure stories. These are goldmines of insight. Studies indicate that post-mortems reveal hidden pitfalls and systemic issues that success stories gloss over. Exit interviews, too, can uncover patterns of missteps that aren’t obvious from the outside. By collecting these stories, you build a more realistic understanding of what works—and what doesn’t.Read case studies about failed startups, not just unicorns.Attend talks or panels focused on lessons learned from failure.Encourage your team to share mistakes openly, without fear of blame.Imagine a “Most Instructive Flop” AwardPicture this: What if every industry had an award for the Most Instructive Flop? Instead of just celebrating success, we’d honor the teams and leaders who learned the most from failure. What would we learn from these stories? Probably more than from the usual highlight reels. As Abraham Wald’s WWII research famously showed, sometimes the most important lessons come from the holes in the data—the planes that didn’t return, the businesses that didn’t survive.Failure isn’t the opposite of success—it’s part of the dataset. Until we normalize sharing flops, we’ll keep building strategies on incomplete maps.Adopt a Survivorship Bias Mental ModelFinally, use survivorship bias awareness as a regular check, especially before adopting new strategies or buying into “best practices.” Ask yourself:Are these results based only on survivors?What silent evidence might I be missing?How can I find data on those who didn’t succeed?Research suggests that leaders who regularly challenge their assumptions with these questions make more balanced, resilient decisions. It’s not about being pessimistic—it’s about being realistic. By hunting for silent evidence, you protect yourself and your organization from the hidden dangers that come from only seeing one side of the story.Smart leaders and analysts account for survivorship bias by using tools like stratified sampling, reverse case studies, and failure-inclusive dashboards that capture both successes and silent failures. Techniques like red teaming and devil’s advocacy ensure your assumptions are challenged before decisions are locked in. It’s not just about having data—it’s about asking if your data tells the whole story.ConclusionSuccess stories are inspiring — but they're only half the truth. If you want to lead wisely, you need to look beyond the headlines and dig into what didn’t work. Research shows that survivorship bias, the tendency to focus on winners while ignoring the silent failures, can seriously distort your understanding of what drives real success. It’s easy to get swept up in the stories of companies that made it big, the products that soared, or the careers that skyrocketed. But if you only study those, you’re missing the other side of the story — and that’s where the real lessons often hide.So, next time you read a glowing case study or hear about a breakthrough entrepreneur, pause for a moment. Ask yourself: What am I not being told? Who tried and didn’t make it? Why did they fail? This simple shift in mindset can help you avoid the trap of drawing conclusions from incomplete data. As studies indicate, ignoring the failures can lead to overconfidence, risky decisions, and missed warning signs.Whether you’re launching a new product, investing in a promising idea, or mapping out your own career path, let data from both survivors and failures guide your choices. In finance, for example, analysts who only look at funds that survived the last decade end up with a skewed view of performance. The same goes for business strategy — if you only study the companies that are still standing, you’ll overlook the factors that led others to close their doors. As Abraham Wald’s famous WWII analysis of bomber planes showed, sometimes the most important evidence is what you don’t see: the silent failures, the missing data, the stories that never made the news.Use survivorship bias as a mental filter in your everyday thinking. When you’re evaluating options, making plans, or even just reading the latest business bestseller, remind yourself to look for the missing voices. What risks are being glossed over? What challenges did others face that aren’t mentioned? By actively seeking out the lessons from both sides — success and failure — you’ll uncover hidden risks and find smarter, more resilient paths forward.In the end, the unsung failures might just hold the lesson that saves your next big bet. Leadership isn’t about chasing every trend or copying the latest success story. It’s about understanding the full landscape — the wins, the losses, and everything in between. So, as you move ahead, let survivorship bias be a reminder: wisdom comes not just from those who made it, but from those who didn’t. That’s how you build a foundation for smarter leadership and sustainable growth.TL;DR – Key TakeawaysSurvivorship bias hides the failures and highlights only the winners.This leads to distorted benchmarks, flawed strategies, and overconfidence.Great leaders ask, “What am I not seeing?”Seek post-mortems, exit interviews, and failure case studies.Let both success and failure guide your decisions.

11 Minutes Read

Jul 21, 2025

MTM1 -Asch Conformity Effect: Why Social Influence Makes Us Doubt Ourselves

Picture this: It’s your first big meeting at a new job. The team is nodding at an idea you secretly think is terrible. You stay quiet, worrying you’ll look foolish if you speak up. Most of us have been there, and it’s a classic example of Asch Conformity—where our survival instinct to fit in overrides our drive to stand out. Let’s peel back the layers of why we second-guess our inner voice in a room full of nodding heads.Understanding the Asch Conformity Study: Why Smart People Stay SilentHave you ever found yourself nodding along with a group, even when something inside you is screaming, “Wait, that’s not right!”? If so, you’re definitely not alone. Conformity isn’t just a social quirk—it’s something that’s deeply rooted in our wiring. In fact, research shows that the urge to blend in with the crowd has been a matter of survival for humans for thousands of years.Think about it: back in the days when humans lived in small tribes, standing out could be risky. If you challenged the group or broke the rules, you might get kicked out. And being on your own in the wild? That was pretty much a death sentence. So, over time, our brains learned that it’s safer to stick with the group, even if that means going along with things that don’t quite feel right.Fast forward to the 1950s, and this instinct to conform was put to the test in a now-famous series of experiments by psychologist Solomon Asch. The setup was simple, but the results were shocking. Participants were shown a line and then asked to pick which of three comparison lines matched its length. The catch? Everyone else in the room (who were actually in on the experiment) would deliberately give the wrong answer. And here’s the wild part: more than one-third of the real participants went along with the obviously incorrect group answer. Just to fit in. Just to avoid standing out.“The tendency to conform in our society is so strong that reasonably intelligent and well-meaning young people are willing to call white black. This is a matter of concern.” — Solomon AschSo, why do we do this? Psychologists break it down into two main types of social influence:Normative influence: This is all about wanting to be liked and accepted. You go along with the group because you’re afraid of being rejected or looking foolish. It’s that sinking feeling you get when you think, “If I speak up, will everyone think I’m weird?”Informational influence: Sometimes, you genuinely believe the group knows better. Maybe you start to doubt your own judgment. “If everyone else is saying this, maybe I missed something?”Picture this: you're at a group trivia night, and you're sure you know the right answer to a question. But everyone else is confidently choosing something else. You second-guess yourself, go with the group’s answer—and later find out your original choice was actually right. That sting of regret? That’s the Asch effect in real life.It’s wild how powerful the pull to fit in can be, even when it goes against what we know is true. Whether it’s a simple game or a big life decision, the science is clear: our urge to conform runs deep, and it’s shaped by both our evolutionary past and the social pressures we feel every day.Group Pressure and Social Influence in Everyday LifeYou might think of conformity as something that only happens in a psychology experiment, with people nervously picking the wrong answer because everyone else did. But honestly, it’s everywhere. It’s in your office meetings, your group chats, even at your family’s dinner table. It’s sneaky like that. You probably don’t even notice it most of the time—until you catch yourself nodding along, even when you’re not totally convinced.Let’s start with the classic boardroom. Imagine you’re in a meeting, and someone tosses out an idea that you’re not sure about. Maybe it sounds a little off, or you have a better suggestion in mind. But then, one by one, everyone else in the room starts agreeing. Suddenly, you feel this weird pressure—like, if you speak up, you’ll be the odd one out. So you just go with it. Research shows this is exactly what Solomon Asch found in his famous experiments: people will often agree with the group, even when the group is clearly wrong, just to avoid sticking out.It’s not just big decisions, either. Think about those moments in class when the teacher asks a question, and you’re pretty sure you know the answer. But then, someone else says something different, and everyone nods. You start doubting yourself. Maybe they’re right? Maybe you’re missing something? That’s conformity at work—your brain quietly nudging you to fit in, even if it means ignoring what you actually believe.Here’s a wild card analogy for you: groupthink is like a potluck dinner where everyone brings the same dish. Why? Because nobody wants to be the one who stands out with something different. It’s safer to blend in, even if it means ending up with seven bowls of potato salad and nothing else. It’s funny, but also a little sad—how often do we miss out on something great, just because we don’t want to look odd?And then there’s social media. Ever notice how some trends just explode overnight? It’s not always because everyone genuinely loves them. Sometimes, it’s just that nobody wants to be left out. You see a meme or a challenge popping up everywhere, and suddenly you feel like you have to join in too, or risk being the only one who missed the joke. Studies indicate that this kind of online conformity is just a digital twist on the same old story: we crave belonging, so we go along, even if we’re not totally sold.The tricky part is recognizing when it’s happening. Are you agreeing because you really believe it, or just because everyone else seems to? It’s not always easy to tell. But once you start noticing those little nudges—when you hesitate to speak up, or when you hit “like” on something just because everyone else did—you’ll see just how often conformity sneaks into your day-to-day life. It’s not about being weak-willed; it’s just human nature. But knowing it’s there? That’s the first step to doing something about it.How to Break Free from the Asch Effect and GroupthinkLet’s be honest—going along with the crowd is easy. It feels safe. But if you’ve ever sat in a meeting, biting your tongue while everyone nods along to an idea you secretly think is off-base, you know that uneasy feeling. That’s the Asch Conformity Effect in action: the subtle, powerful pull to fit in, even when your gut says otherwise. Research shows that more than a third of people will agree with a group’s wrong answer just to avoid standing out. So, how do you break that spell?Encouraging Dissent: The Role of Leadership in Psychological SafetyHere’s the thing—whether you’re leading a team, supporting a friend, or just trying to be a good partner, your job isn’t to keep everyone in line. It’s to make space for disagreement. That means you have to invite people to speak up, not just tolerate it when they do. If you’re only hearing agreement, you’re probably missing out on the best ideas (and maybe heading for a groupthink disaster).Simple Strategies to Break the Conformity SpellOpenly acknowledge dissent: When someone disagrees, thank them. Say it out loud. “I appreciate you bringing a different perspective.” It sounds simple, but it matters.Reward honest feedback: Don’t just nod—show that you value honesty. Maybe it’s a shout-out in a meeting, or just a private thank you. People notice when you reward courage.Build trust with small risks: Start with low-stakes disagreements. Ask for opinions on something minor, and show you’re open to pushback. Over time, people will feel safer sharing bigger concerns.Real-World Examples of Conformity vs. OpennessWe’ve all heard about the mythical “open-door policy,” but every now and then, you meet a manager who really means it. You know the type—they ask, “What am I missing?” and pause, waiting for someone to speak up. They might even say, “If everyone agrees, we’re probably missing something.” And when you do disagree? They don’t get defensive. They lean in, ask questions, and sometimes even change their mind. That’s psychological safety in action. It’s not about being nice—it’s about being real.Using Devil’s Advocate Roles to Disrupt Conformity to MajorityPicture this: you’re in a meeting, and it’s a rule that everyone has to play devil’s advocate at least once. Suddenly, it’s not weird to question the plan—it’s expected. The pressure to conform drops, and new ideas start to surface. Sure, it might feel awkward at first, but research indicates that environments like this help people break free from the Asch Effect. When disagreement is normalized, you get more honest conversations, smarter decisions, and a team that actually trusts each other.It’s not about being contrarian for the sake of it. It’s about making sure everyone feels safe enough to say, “I see it differently.” That’s how you break the spell of conformity—one honest conversation at a time.Key Takeaways from the Asch Experiment and Choosing When to ConformSo, after diving into the Asch Conformity Effect and seeing just how powerful group pressure can be, you might be left wondering—when should you actually go along with the crowd, and when is it better to stand your ground? It’s not always a simple choice. Sometimes, blending in makes life easier or helps you build connections. Other times, following the group just doesn’t feel right, especially when you know deep down that the majority is wrong.Research shows that people often conform to group norms, even when those norms go against their own judgment. The Asch experiments made this painfully clear. Imagine sitting in a room, knowing the right answer, but everyone else is confidently saying something different. It’s tough not to second-guess yourself. Asch’s studies found that more than a third of participants ended up agreeing with the group’s wrong answer, just to avoid sticking out. That’s a pretty big deal.But here’s the thing: conformity isn’t always a bad thing. Sometimes, it’s a way to keep the peace or show respect for others’ opinions. It can help teams work together smoothly and make social interactions less awkward. Still, there’s a fine line between healthy cooperation and losing your own voice. The real challenge is figuring out where that line is for you.If you’ve ever felt that uncomfortable tug inside—like you’re about to agree with something you know isn’t right—you’re not alone. The Asch Effect reminds us that this is a very human experience. It’s not just about being weak-willed or easily swayed. It’s about the deep need to belong and avoid rejection. But as studies indicate, too much conformity can lead to groupthink, where everyone just goes along without questioning, and that can be risky, especially in workplaces or important decision-making situations.So, what can you do? One approach is to pause and check in with yourself before you go along with the group. Ask: “Am I agreeing because I truly believe this, or just because everyone else does?” Sometimes, it’s worth speaking up, even if it feels uncomfortable. Other times, it’s okay to let small things slide. The key is to be aware of why you’re choosing to conform—or not.Leaders and teams can help, too. Creating an environment where it’s safe to disagree makes a huge difference. When people feel comfortable sharing different ideas, everyone benefits. Asch’s work is a good reminder that we all have the power to shape the groups we’re part of, just by being a little braver and a little more thoughtful.In the end, choosing when to conform is about balance. It’s about knowing yourself, trusting your instincts, and remembering that sometimes, the crowd gets it wrong. And that’s okay. Your voice matters—even if it’s the only one in the room.TL;DR: Social pressure can nudge us into silence or agreement, even when we know better. Understanding Asch Conformity doesn’t mean you’ll always rebel—but it will help you spot those invisible forces so you can choose your response wisely.

11 Minutes Read

Jul 21, 2025

About Models That Matter

Welcome to Models That Matter – where thinking better begins.Ever wondered why smart people sometimes make poor decisions? Or why some strategies succeed while others fail despite similar resources?The answer often lies not in what we know, but how we think.At Models That Matter, we explore timeless mental models — the powerful thinking frameworks used by the world’s best decision-makers, innovators, investors, and leaders. These aren’t just concepts for academics or CEOs. They’re practical tools you can use every day — in your career, business, relationships, and personal growth.What Are Mental Models?Mental models are the lenses through which we interpret the world. They help us make sense of complexity, avoid blind spots, and approach problems with clarity and precision. From Inversion Thinking to First Principles, from Second-Order Effects to the 80/20 Rule — these models are shortcuts to sharper insight and wiser action.About MeHi, I’m Sushil Kumar, a lifelong learner, digital strategist, and passionate advocate of clear thinking.After spending over a decade working with leaders across industries — from technology to healthcare — I realized that the most successful people don’t just work harder; they think differently. They consistently apply better mental models to solve problems, seize opportunities, and build systems that work.I started Models That Matter to share those tools with anyone who wants to improve how they think, decide, and lead.Whether you're a student trying to navigate life, a founder scaling your startup, or a manager making critical choices under uncertainty — you’ll find something here to help you think clearer and act smarter.What You'll Find HereWeekly Mental Models explained simplyReal-world examples and applicationsPractical frameworks for decision-making, product strategy, leadership, and personal growthA growing library of models categorized by domain and purpose(Coming soon) Video explainers, cheat sheets, and toolkitsWhat is MTM2?MTM2 stands for Models That Matter - 2nd Model. It’s a curated number that provides an index of powerful mental models—simple thinking tools that help you cut through complexity, make smarter decisions, and lead with clarity. Each model is chosen for its real-world impact, helping you spot hidden biases, challenge assumptions, and navigate life and leadership more effectively.Join the JourneyWant one mental model in your inbox every week?Subscribe to Models That Matter Weekly and never miss a new post.Let’s build a smarter world — one model at a time.

2 Minutes Read

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MTM2 - Survivorship Bias: The Danger You Don't See

MTM1 -Asch Conformity Effect: Why Social Influence Makes Us Doubt Ourselves

About Models That Matter